Naren Ramakrishnan, Patrick Butler, Sathappan Muthiah, Nathan Self, Rupinder Paul Khandpur, Parang Saraf, Wei Wang, Jose Cadena, Anil Vullikanti, Gizem Korkmaz, Chris Kuhlman, Achla Marathe, Liang Zhao, Feng Chen, Chang-Tien Lu, Bert Huang, Aravind Srinivasan, Khoa Trinh, Lise Getoor, Graham Katz, Andy Doyle, Chris Ackermann, Ilya Zavorin, Jim Ford, Kristen Summers, Youssef Fayed, Jaime Arredondo, Dipak Gupta, David Mares

Abstract

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the June 2013 protests in Brazil and Feb 2014 violent protests in Venezuela. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.

People

wei-updated

Wei Wang


Feng-updated

Feng Chen


sathappan-updated

Sathappan Muthiah


nvc-3

Liang Zhao


patrick-updated

Patrick Butler


Ramakrishnan-updated

Naren Ramakrishnan


ctlu-updated

Chang-Tien Lu


Huang-updated

Bert Huang


nwself-updated

Nathan Self


parang-updated

Parang Saraf


Publication Details

Date of publication:
August 25, 2014
Conference: